How long has David Cameron got?

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  • Last Post 30 June 2016
1. Gone by 2016
1 vote
2. Goes by 2017
3 vote
3. Goes after 2017, but before the 2020 general election
7 vote
4. He was lying before the 2015 General Election and will contest 2020 as leader.
5 vote
pap posted this 01 October 2015

With all the news concerning Corbyn, the only time we've given much consideration to David Cameron was last week, when Lord Ashcroft's humourous and serious allegations hit the newspapers.    Much mirth was had, but people are perhaps forgetting that Cameron is on borrowed time.

He has already said is he will not be contending the next election, and that he'll step aside for someone else.  

Nicky Morgan is in the papers today, indicating an interest in the soon-to-be-vacant position, not even six months after the election.   Boris is now an MP, and the Conservatives are in the position where their leadership is going be continually thrown into stark relief by Corbyn.

The education secretary, Nicky Morgan, has said she would consider standing for the leadership of the Conservative party when David Cameron steps down.

Cameron ruled out serving a third term as prime minister in the run-up to May’s general election, meaning he would have to stand down before the end of this five-year parliament. He named his likely successors in 2020 as the home secretary, Theresa May, the London mayor, Boris Johnson, and George Osborne, the chancellor.

Speaking to the Spectator magazine, Morgan said: “I hope that, in the not-too-distant future, there will be another female leader of a main Westminster political party.”

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/oct/01/nicky-morgan-conservative-party-leadership-david-cameron

How long has he got?

43 Comments
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Areola Grandee posted this 01 October 2015

Sadly he pocesses more than enough smug arrogance to keep the Tory faithful happy for the foreseeable... 

Burp posted this 01 October 2015

I voted that he was lying because that's a given, but then read the piece.

 

I think it depends on how well they think they'll do. If they think Corbyn's a joke and not up to much he'll stay to see it through and then bail a la tosspot tony. If they think it'll be a harder fight than it ought to be (to them) - see the story about people being denied access to hearing aids  in t' news today - then I can see them bringing in the "charismatic" Boris to hoover up votes from UKIP and the like. Either way, he's due his turn as leader due to his membership of all those porcine-friendly clubs I have just heard about.

 

KRG posted this 01 October 2015

Struggle to see anyone other than Boris taking over if I am honest. It'll cause friction, and there'll be some infighting, but I think it'll be Boris about 1/2 years off from the election.

Which makes me think, would we ever have had one PM handing over the keys to #10 to someone they went to school with?

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Areola Grandee posted this 01 October 2015

If he can ride out getting a gobble from a dead pig, then surely he will be confidrent of further victory.

pap posted this 01 October 2015

Originally posted by Cracked Rib

If he can ride out getting a gobble from a dead pig, then surely he will be confidrent of further victory.

If.

We don't know that he has.   Next set of elections should be very interesting.

Areola Grandee posted this 01 October 2015

Originally posted by pap

Originally posted by Cracked Rib

If he can ride out getting a gobble from a dead pig, then surely he will be confidrent of further victory.

If.

We don't know that he has.   Next set of elections should be very interesting.

 Thing is will the results be a reflection of the shitty way folks have been treated or the shitty way he treated that deceased porker? 

BTripz posted this 01 October 2015

Originally posted by pap

Originally posted by Cracked Rib

If he can ride out getting a gobble from a dead pig, then surely he will be confidrent of further victory.

If.

We don't know that he has.   Next set of elections should be very interesting.

Dunno Pap, mid-termers are generally used to vote against the government to register disproval, give them the proverbial kick up the cahooney as t'were...

Sfcsim posted this 01 October 2015

This term, then his Tory replacement in for the next term. Then back to labour, in the game of pass the buck! 

CB Saint posted this 01 October 2015

Three and a half years giving who ever is next a year of being prime ministerial before walloping Corbyn in the election.

 

Intiniki posted this 01 October 2015

Too long. Whatever the actual time he will be PM is. His possible replacements, BJ, Nicky Morgan, Theresa and that one with a red brief case all fill me with dread. 

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PhilippineSaint posted this 02 October 2015

Originally posted by Sfcsim

This term, then his Tory replacement in for the next term. Then back to labour, in the game of pass the buck! 

 I thought they were playing pass the pig ?

Chertsey Saint posted this 02 October 2015

Three years and then a passing over to Boris. I would be confident of another win with Cameron in power, but I would be supremely confident if Boris was taking over.

Anything that keeps May out if power.

pap posted this 02 October 2015

Sign of a popular party "Hide your conference badges!"

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-conference-passes-manchester-safety-tuc-protest-a6675471.html#

Seriously, I know the likes of Britain First have people picketing them, but can you think of any other mainstream party so reviled that it'd need to make this statement?

Sadoldgit posted this 02 October 2015

W ould love to see Johnson and Coryn duke it out for the PMs job. Finally some characters fighting for the highest office. The women love Boris. When I worked for The Spectator we were doing a promo at WHS in Sloane Square. Boris was editor at the time and we persuaded him to come along and help the promo. The women were queuing up to meet him and I had to fight them off for him.

Chertsey Saint posted this 02 October 2015

Originally posted by pap

Sign of a popular party "Hide your conference badges!"

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-conference-passes-manchester-safety-tuc-protest-a6675471.html#

Seriously, I know the likes of Britain First have people picketing them, but can you think of any other mainstream party so reviled that it'd need to make this statement?

I agree, it really is a sad state for the country that members of a political party can't express themselves for fear of violence. Guess it's what it's like in the North though (it's grim up there).

KRG posted this 05 October 2015

Just seen this on that Twitter dot com thing. A poll from "Conservative Home", whatever exactly that is. 

Found it slightly surprising, especailly such a lead.

http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2015/10/as-he-prepares-to-make-his-speech-osborne-leads-our-future-leader-survey-for-the-third-month-running.html

Osborne = 32%

Javid = 17%

May = 15%

BoJo = 14%

Fox = 12%

Gove = 6%

Hunt = 2%

Morgan = 1%

 

Nobby Plumbs posted this 05 October 2015

As a Tory voter (not a member I hasten to add) I would go for David Davis but highly unlikely that he would win. Johnson would be a disaster, can you imagine him up against Corbyn, the public wouldn't know where to turn. Osborne looks a safe bet and is looking more and more assured all the time.

CB Saint posted this 05 October 2015

Originally posted by KRG

Just seen this on that Twitter dot com thing. A poll from "Conservative Home", whatever exactly that is. 

Found it slightly surprising, especailly such a lead.

http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2015/10/as-he-prepares-to-make-his-speech-osborne-leads-our-future-leader-survey-for-the-third-month-running.html

Osborne = 32%

Javid = 17%

May = 15%

BoJo = 14%

Fox = 12%

Gove = 6%

Hunt = 2%

Morgan = 1%

 

 You would have to question the point of your career as a politician if Gove had a better chance of winning than you.

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Numptyboi posted this 05 October 2015

I think he'll go all the way into the next election. IMHO, before the last election, he didn't think he'd have a clear electoral mandate and I would guess that this may have chanegd things for him. I reckon he'll contest the next election as Tory leader. 

pap posted this 07 October 2015

Originally posted by Numptyboi

I think he'll go all the way into the next election. IMHO, before the last election, he didn't think he'd have a clear electoral mandate and I would guess that this may have chanegd things for him. I reckon he'll contest the next election as Tory leader. 

 The Prime Minister would appear to agree with you, judging by his recent interview with Jon Snow.   However, many of the conference speeches, including Osborne, Boris Johnson and Theresa May's, have been about asserting their own ideas and putting a stake in the ground for leadership.

So we've got conflicting information.

You'd have to look at John Major as the most recent example of a politician that became Prime Minister in between elections and went on to win the next general election.   He had just short of two years to make his case, but managed to convince the electorate anyway.

I think he'll be gone by 2017.