How long has David Cameron got?

Sign of a popular party “Hide your conference badges!”

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-conference-passes-manchester-safety-tuc-protest-a6675471.html#

Seriously, I know the likes of Britain First have people picketing them, but can you think of any other mainstream party so reviled that it’d need to make this statement?

W ould love to see Johnson and Coryn duke it out for the PMs job. Finally some characters fighting for the highest office. The women love Boris. When I worked for The Spectator we were doing a promo at WHS in Sloane Square. Boris was editor at the time and we persuaded him to come along and help the promo. The women were queuing up to meet him and I had to fight them off for him.

I agree, it really is a sad state for the country that members of a political party can’t express themselves for fear of violence. Guess it’s what it’s like in the North though (it’s grim up there).

Just seen this on that Twitter dot com thing. A poll from “Conservative Home”, whatever exactly that is.

Found it slightly surprising, especailly such a lead.

Osborne = 32%

Javid = 17%

May = 15%

BoJo = 14%

Fox = 12%

Gove = 6%

Hunt = 2%

Morgan = 1%

As a Tory voter (not a member I hasten to add) I would go for David Davis but highly unlikely that he would win. Johnson would be a disaster, can you imagine him up against Corbyn, the public wouldn’t know where to turn. Osborne looks a safe bet and is looking more and more assured all the time.

You would have to question the point of your career as a politician if Gove had a better chance of winning than you.

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I think he’ll go all the way into the next election. IMHO, before the last election, he didn’t think he’d have a clear electoral mandate and I would guess that this may have chanegd things for him. I reckon he’ll contest the next election as Tory leader.

The Prime Minister would appear to agree with you, judging by his recent interview with Jon Snow. However, many of the conference speeches, including Osborne, Boris Johnson and Theresa May’s, have been about asserting their own ideas and putting a stake in the ground for leadership.

So we’ve got conflicting information.

You’d have to look at John Major as the most recent example of a politician that became Prime Minister in between elections and went on to win the next general election. He had just short of two years to make his case, but managed to convince the electorate anyway.

I think he’ll be gone by 2017.

More down to Kinnock than Major in 1992 I’d have said. It was totally out of kilter with polls, by-election results and so forth. I don’t think the electorate was convinced by Major, still less by Lamont, but they still preferred Major to Kinnock when it came to it.

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Even so though, anyone looking to become leader is going to have expectations of having a bit of time to set themselves apart from Cameron. They can’t contest the next election if people don’t know who the Prime Minister will be, so you have to figure these speeches are in aid of a pre-2020 putsch.

Bump.

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Tick tock, tick tock. Although I’d like him gone soon the thought of his successor is worrying. Whoever that may be.

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I was re-reading this thread before I bumped it. You’re a consistent, stoic lass. My posh rock :lou_wink_2:

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The Canary have a piece here, wishful thinking perhaps, that this could be the last 24 hours for Cameron.

http://www.thecanary.co/2016/04/08/cameron-forced-office-less-24-hours/

I do agree with intiniki that the field of candidates is a bit thin, but the timing could be massive. What would a Boris Johnson-led Conservative Party do for Brexit? Would he, having achieved his goal, change direction?

If Cameron goes, I think that there is a fair chance that there will be a vote of no confidence in the government, one of the only triggers that can break us out of the five year fixed term election cycles.

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Not sure. Think he will hang in until the referendum. He might go then regardless of the result. If the vote is out, he won’t have much choice, if the vote is in then he can cling on to a legacy of sorts.

You say the sweetest things.

Has he been stretched?

He’s fine until his party decides he’s a liability.

He has control of the media, and the electors gave him a full mandate to make cuts and to run down services so they should be happy enough - though they also voted away our power to control him.

His future is pretty much up to him or the party.

Originally posted by @Rallyboy

He’s fine until his party decides he’s a liability.

He has control of the media, and the electors gave him a full mandate to make cuts and to run down services so they should be happy enough - though they also voted away our power to control him.

His future is pretty much up to him or the party.

This whole discussion began back in October as Nicky Morgan (of all people) appeared to throw her hat in the ring for the leadership. Now, if people were thinking about their aspirations then, when they believed that everything was tickety-boo, you can be damn sure that they will be thinking of it now.

This could easily have gone in Tories in Trouble, but it directly relates to Cameron’s current situation. Peter Oborne’s piece from the Daily Mail.