A bit of housekeeping and throatclearing on why automation studies get on my nerves.
First they are based on views of computer scientists and engineers of what occupations are technically feasible to automate. Needless to say, expert predictions have been consistently overoptimistic, making Philip K Dick’s acid-fuelled tech futures look like the Waltons or an episode of CountryFile. Going back to the Dartmouth Conference in 1956, computer scientists have been predicting fully intelligent machines for nearly a century; yet even now, robots struggle to tie a pair of shoes (a feat that even the minimally sentient on TSW can accomplish) -never mind think ‘intelligently’ in the hard-AI sense.
Second just because it is technically feasible to automate a job doesn’t mean it will be automated. That decision is influenced by a range of cost, institutional, cultural and even ethical factors. The history of tech adoption is a story of numerous steps and missteps, one that can be ball-achingly slow.
Third the study only looks at occupations - in practice, occupations are made up of tasks some of which are automatable, some of which aren’t. The more likely scenario is that jobs will subtly evolve. While they will still be recognisable from today’s vantage point, those tasks that are difficult to automate or are complementary with technology will be increasingly emphasised. Think how the spread of ATM saw bank tellers move into relationship management and gave us Howard ‘Halifax’ Brown.
Fourth, studies like this only consider the employment effects of technological displacement; needless to say, technology also creates jobs. For example, technology can drive down costs, increasing demand for that good or service. Thus in the 19th century, 98% of the labour required to weave cloth was automated but employment in the weaving industry still increased due to increased demand for cheaper clothes. Alternatively surplus income can be recycled into additional spending on other activities which have nothing to do with technology such as hospitality, fitness, personal care and healthcare.
And of course, technology can create entirely new jobs. Think how the car was bad news for equestrian travel and blacksmiths but led to mechanics, road construction teams, driving schools, car dealers, car washes, car insurance agents, traffic safety officers, parking lot attendants, mapmakers, personal injury lawyers, fast-food restaurants, fluffy dice makers, street corner pimps you name it.
Now onto the real business of the day: its a bit grim in ‘enemy territory’, though it’s international break and let’s face it there isn’t much beyond the football over there.
Just when you think the Brexit and terrorism threads couldn’t plumb any lower in shit-show stakes, someone blindsides you with another whopper. The Lounge, Muppet Show and Arts thread are now inhabited by a few scavengers and roving bandits but nothing like a stationary community in which meaningful discussion can flourish.
For those of us who are less tribal in our mboard allegiances, the solution seems simple enough. But I guess that ship has sadly sailed…
